Thought Experiment #1

Class: Imagined
Subject: Potential asteroid impact
Note: Asteroid Apophis 99942 is real having been discovered in 2004 with potential impact dates of 2029, 2036, and 2068
Value: Emergency preparedness and response

It is April 11, 2029. You live in Sacramento, California. You wake up as you do every morning to your iPhone alarm at 06:30 PST. You flip on the local news channel on your way to the bathroom to get ready for work and stop mid-stride by the report that the asteroid Apophis 99942 has a suddenly corrected orbit, most probably due to a very recent collision with another body crossing its orbit, and is now headed towards earth. The 1,100-foot-wide asteroid was discovered in 2004 and given a 2.7% chance of hitting earth on Friday, April 13, 2029. Because of the corrected orbit, the probability of direct hit on this Friday the 13th has now risen to 72%. NASA has declared this a “Potential Impact” event which is much more serious than a “Close Encounter” event. All governments around the globe are on full alert.

You need more information only to find that your go-to digital media sites to have crashed due to digital traffic overload. Your wife is now awake and sits in bed frozen with fear. Your two kids are still asleep. You have an EV minivan in the garage on half charge that is normally enough charge to get you to work where you have a dedicated plugin that can fully charge your vehicle in just short of a half-hour. Why pay a higher electric bill when you can charge for free, right? You have never paid much attention to building a home emergency supply kit because you never believed there would be a need to have one, too much bother after all.

You reach for your cell phone to contact your place of work and find that cellular bandwidth is no more. You are, of course, not the first to hear the news. The media is now reporting that people are panicking and riots have begun cleaning out any grocery outlet or supply store that still have stocks on the shelves. The media is also reporting that scientists are furiously working to revise their models to determine the most likely area of impact if the strike should occur. Interviews with scientists in the know state that an impact could cause widespread destruction up to several hundred miles from the impact site. The energy release would be equal to more than 1,000 megatons of TNT. Thermal radiation would cause widespread fires and an ocean impact could cause an incredibly large tsunami that could impact land far inland from the existing shorelines.

• WHAT DO YOU DO IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WHY?

• WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATIONS FOR A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME AND WHY?

• WHAT ARE YOUR FAMILY’S EXPECTATIONS FOR A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME AND WHY?

• HOW COULD YOU HAVE DEVELOPED THE MINDSET THAT WOULD HAVE HAD YOU READY?

• HOW COULD YOUR FAMILY HAVE DEVELOPED THE FAMILY MINDSET THAT WOULD HAVE HAD YOU ALL READY?